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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the latest competition is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still